Week-Ahead: Key Items
- Top events:
- Nvidia earnings: Wed, after US close. Crucial AI read-through after outsized rally.
- Delayed US data: Sep NFP Thu (Nov 20); Sep real earnings Fri (Nov 21).
- Other US releases: Aug construction spending Mon (Nov 17); Aug manufacturers’ orders Tue (Nov 18); Aug international trade (Census + BEA) Wed (Nov 19).
- Market setup:
- Asia softer into data/earnings.
- December Fed cut odds <50% after hawkish Fedspeak; tech under pressure.
- China–Japan friction hit Tokyo travel/retail; stimulus chatter pressured JGBs.
- Dollar firmer; gold ~$4,060/oz; oil softer; bitcoin weak after worst week since March.
Europe/UK
- UK Gilts under strain: Fiscal credibility doubts after reports Reeves may drop income-tax hike and extend allowance freeze.
- 10Y Gilt +13 bp to 4.57%.
- GBP fell to a 2.5-year low vs EUR.
- Risk: further pressure if Autumn Statement (Nov 26) relies on optimistic growth.
Germany 40 – DAX Technical Outlook 4 H
The Germany 40 CFD (4H) remains under pressure after repeated rejections at 24,510 resistance. Price action has turned choppy around 23,850, with both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA converging overhead near 24,000–24,100, forming a resistance cluster. The RSI (around 40) shows weak momentum, while the MACD is still below the signal line, suggesting bearish bias persists despite slight short-term stabilization.
Key support lies at 23,800, followed by 23,377–23,300. A drop below 23,800 would likely accelerate selling toward the lower support band, while a recovery above 24,100 could neutralize pressure and reopen a path to 24,
Semis/AI Supply Chain
- DRAM surge: Q4’25 contract prices seen ~+20% QoQ; more than tripled since April.
- Server demand locking contracts to 2027; potential allocation squeeze for PCs/phones.
- Profit mix: HBM ~60% margin vs DRAM ~40% now; gap likely narrows in 2026.
- Korea dominance: ~70% DRAM / ~80% HBM share; KOSPI strength; 2026 EPS upgrades >9% MoM, now ~+30% y/y.
China Macro
- Oct slowdown: IP 4.9% y/y, services 2.9% y/y; investment weaker on housing slump.
- Largest monthly home-price drop YTD.
- One-offs: high base (post-Sep’24 stimulus), US–China trade flare-up hit exports temporarily.
- New ~€120bn fiscal support expected to aid a sequential pickup next months.
Earnings Focus (This Week)
- US: Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, NVIDIA (Wed), Walmart, Intuit.
- Europe: Imperial Brands, ORLEN, Halma, Sage, Severn Trent, Allegro.eu, Diploma, CTS Eventim, Babcock, Investec.
- Asia: Tokio Marine, Sompo, MS&AD; Trip.com, Xiaomi, Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase.
Macro Diary (local dates as stated)
- Mon (Nov 17): US Aug construction spending. Japan Q3 GDP advance (consensus QoQ −0.6%).
- Wed: UK Oct CPI (headline seen 3.6%, core 3.4%).
- Thu (Nov 20): US Sep NFP (first post-shutdown federal release; likely soft); US S&P Global Nov flash PMIs Fri.
- Fri: US Sep real earnings.
Crypto/Payments
- JPM Coin (USD deposit token) live; Mastercard testing.
- US SOL ETFs: 10 straight inflow days; ~$342m since Oct 28.
- Corporate BTC buy: +487 BTC (~$50m) at ~$102.6k; total holdings 641,692 BTC (~3% of supply).
- Czech central bank pilot: ~$1m in BTC/crypto for transaction/testing use cases.
- Market: Bitcoin briefly erased 2025 gains, near $93k over weekend.
US Trade/Tariffs
- China rare-earths framework: Bessent “hopefully” by Thanksgiving; leverage if non-compliance.
- No further tariff rollbacks expected per Trump; soybean talks ongoing.
- Tariff “dividend” checks would need Congress.
- US–Switzerland/Liechtenstein: reciprocal tariff cap ≤15%, sectoral cuts/quotas; ≥$200bn Swiss/Liechtenstein investment into US (incl. $67bn in 2026).
- USTR: deals with other Western partners “very close.”
- Scope tweak to reciprocal ag tariffs effective 00:01 ET, Nov 13, 2025.
- Tesla telling suppliers to exclude China-made parts for US builds.
APAC Tape
- ASX 200: mixed; IT/Energy up, Defensives lag.
- Nikkei 225: choppy around 50k; modest loss post GDP contraction; China travel warning hit Japan travel names.
- KOSPI: +1.5% outperformance on chip strength (reports of Samsung price hikes).
- HK/Shanghai: modest declines, in line with region ex-Korea.
Notables
- Samsung: New Pyeongtaek fab; mass production 2028; FläktGroup exploring Korea plant.
- Alibaba Qwen: public beta as ChatGPT competitor.
- Japan: considering ~JPY 17tn stimulus; ~JPY 14tn supplementary budget.
Bottom line: Cautious tone into Nvidia Wednesday and Sep NFP Thursday. Re-pricing of Fed cuts, UK fiscal uncertainty, and semiconductor pricing dynamics are the near-term macro drivers.
–Philip Papageorgiou – Market Analyst
-X: PhilipForexCom